How to determine when gold will stop rising?

Gold is the "Terminator of Fiat Currency," and its price fluctuations reflect a complex interplay of global macro politics, monetary credibility, and safe-haven sentiment.

Based on the latest market data and analyses from major investment banks in early 2026, here are some of Loden's insights on the gold trend and inflection points:

## How Long Will the Gold Price Rally Last?

The current market consensus is: **The structural bull market for gold is not over yet; there is still room for upside in 2026, but volatility will increase significantly.**

**Short-term target (first half of 2026):** Due to the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, coupled with geopolitical risks (such as the recent situation in Venezuela and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict) continuously driving safe-haven demand, the gold price is highly likely to break through **$4,500 per ounce** in the first quarter of 2026. Some institutions (like JPMorgan) have even raised their target price to **$5,000**.

**Long-term cycle (second half of 2026–2027):** As U.S. government debt pressure becomes normalized, global central banks' gold-buying demand for "de-dollarization" remains strong. However, it is important to note that once the gold price enters the $5,000 range, physical consumption demand (such as for jewelry) will be severely suppressed, and the market will shift to pure **speculative & allocation capital** games. This indicates that the rally will enter a "fish-tail phase," where the slope steepens but risks surge.

## How to Identify the "Inflection Point" for Gold?

The transition from a bull market to a bear market (or long-term consolidation) for gold is usually accompanied by specific signals. You can observe them from the following three dimensions:

### 1. Macro Environment Signals

- **Real interest rates turn positive:** Gold does not generate interest. If U.S. inflation is brought under control and the Federal Reserve unexpectedly hikes rates to prevent economic overheating, causing "real interest rates" to rise sharply, gold's appeal could collapse instantly.
- **A "temporary resurgence" of dollar credibility:** If a new global economic crisis emerges and the U.S. demonstrates strong resilience, funds may flow back to the dollar for safety. At this point, gold and the dollar would exhibit a sharp negative correlation.

### 2. Technical Signals

- **High volume without significant price increase (topping volume):** Extremely high trading volume near historical highs, but the price forms a long upper shadow or fails to break higher. This often indicates that large institutions are distributing holdings to retail investors at high levels.
- **Break of moving averages:** Monitor the **200-day moving average (annual line)**. Gold rarely falls below this line during a long bull market. If the price effectively breaks below the annual line and fails to recover within two weeks, it generally confirms a medium-to-long-term major top.
- **Divergence phenomena:** When the gold price hits new highs, but the peaks of MACD or RSI indicators are lower (bearish divergence), it signals that upward momentum is exhausted, and a reversal is imminent.

### 3. Sentiment Signals

- **"Aunties exiting" and "nationwide discussion":** When social media, family gatherings, and even people who don’t follow finance are frantically discussing gold investing, it often indicates overheated sentiment.
- **Central banks stop increasing holdings:** Pay attention to the World Gold Council's (WGC) quarterly reports. If global central banks shift from net buying to flat or even selling for several consecutive quarters, this is the most solid fundamental inflection point.

## Operational Suggestions

- **Enter in batches rather than all at once:** The gold price in 2026 is already at an extreme historical high. Avoid going all-in due to fear of missing out (FOMO).
- **Monitor the "gold-silver ratio":** Historically, in the late stages of a gold rally, silver often catches up. If silver begins to surge wildly, it usually signals that the precious metals rally is nearing its end.
- **Hold physical gold and gold ETFs:** For long-term holdings, physical gold bars are recommended. For short-term trading, use ETFs for flexible entry and exit, making it easier to take profits quickly when inflection point signals appear.